The Big Day

So you spent all your money for the big day and now its the morning after. Was it worth it? In the state of Indiana, election results showed turnovers in the House in district 2 (Donnely* vs. Chocola), district 8 (Ellsworth* vs. Hostettler) and district 9 (Hill* vs. Sodrel)- all in favor of Democrats, which is no surprise for most. Nonetheless, Indiana still remains fairly balanced.

Here are the campaign finance statistics for District 9:

Baron Hill (D)
Total Receipts: $1,672,524
Ending Cash: $543,016
Individual Contributions: $841,811
PAC Contributions: $672,380

Mike Sodrel (R)
Total Receipts: $2,403,290
Ending Cash: $666,347
Individual Contributions: $931,635
PAC Contributions: $1,113,205

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On a similar note, in district 2:

Joe Donnely (D)
Total Receipts: $1,333,572
Ending Cash: $242,324
Individual Contributions: $808,389
PAC Contributions: $464,125

Chris Chocola (R)
Total Receipts: $2,955,623
Ending Cash: $656,687
Individual Contributions: $1,569,925
PAC Contributions: $1,342,410

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So it looks like maybe spending more money is not always the right answer. Then again, the 4% Sodrel needed in his district to tie was sucked right up by Libertarian Eric Schansberg, whose campaign ideologies were probably just too harsh for the moderates of Indiana to accept- what he needs is some consensus theory. Coincidentally, Chocola needed the same percentage of votes in his district to tie Donnely, but fell short without any Libertarian influence.


See for yourself at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/IN/

~Danny

Election Night: A Political Shift?

On election night Indiana, the “Crossroads State” may play a large role in a Democratic takeover in the house. In the past news anchors like Dan Rather have deemed Indiana a Republican stronghold and win early on in the evening. However, tomorrow’s election may be an entirely different story. A big issue for many voters in Indiana is the Bush administration’s failure to make progress on Iraq. Hoosiers are also disapproving of the Bush administration’s failure to create good manufacturing jobs and failure to address the US addiction to oil. These are also main issues on the National level. These issues coupled with congressional scandal and dysfunction suggest that Indiana could be a large part of a reordering of political balance in Washington. Residents of Indiana have friends and family members serving in Iraq, have a tighter budget due to fluctuating gas prices, and have lost jobs due to a national outsourcing. These issues are all very personal to them and come election day we may see this predominantly Republican state loose key seats to the Democratic party. These key seats (Districts 2, 8, and 9) may be just enough for the Democrats to take hold of the House. It is also important to note that these three districts have formidable Democratic challengers. In the 8th District, Ellsworth with his law enforcement experience on homeland security issues combined with his conservative view on abortion and guns could gain him the seat. In the 9th District, Hill a former Congressman is running on his Indiana Hall of Fame high school basketball legacy and reliable “Blue Dog” Democrat appeal. In the 2nd District, Donnelly a pro-life businessman and graduate from Notre Dame has a good chance. So when looking to the polls tomorrow we may see a shift in Indiana, that could give momentum to other congressional races across the country.
-Kiersten

See: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2006611010367

Updates in the Key Races

According to just about every report on this election, Indiana will play a major role in determining the fate of the House of Reps. On election day, the results from Indiana will most likely determine if the Democrats will ride their wave of change or the Republicans have successfully defended themselves from the onslaught of anti-incumbency. Here's a few updates in the races.

2nd District: Chocola (R) - Donnelly (D)
The latest polls seem to indicate that this race is still anyone's call. Donnelly does have a very slight edge in the polls, but mostly within the error margin of the poll.

7th District: Carson (D) - Dickerson(R)
Dickerson has effectively closed the gap on Carson. Carson is still probably the favorite in this race due to the demographics of the district, but it is possible that Dickerson is within range of pulling an upset.

8th District: Hostettler (R) - Ellsworth (D)
Ellsworth is ahead between 5 and 10 points in the polls. Keep in mind Hostettler has come back from similar straights in past elections, however his strange campaigning seems to have finally caught up with him.

9th District: Sodrel (R) - Hill (D)
Dead Heat. Although Hill's recently discovered misstatements and exaggerations concerning his past accomplishments on his campaign website might have tipped the scales in Sodrel's favor.

Overall: The closeness of all of these races show that there is a scare for the Republicans in office, but the fact that Carson was able to close a relatively large gap against Dickerson has me questioning if big changes are really on the way or just close elections. Get out to Vote efforts seem as if they will be the deciding factor on Tuesday.

-Wade

8th District Woes

In the 8th district, Democrat Brad Ellsworth may be gaining the advantage against Republican incumbent John Hostettler, thought to be a competitive opponent. On a poll dated 17-20 October published by CNN with a 5% error, Hostettler was behind 7%, with 50% of the people supporting Ellsworth. Those 7% are still undecided, leaving the 8th district still up for grabs. In an article from Time, many believe Hostettler can't beat Ellsworth, and Hoosiers are concerned that Hostettler is not even putting forth an effort. In response, he has campaigned even harder, but targetted at a particular group of constituents: evangelical Christians.

Hostettler has had a track record of standing up against the GOP and Bush, which makes him appealing to many Hoosiers. He was even cited as voting against the War in Iraq, but many Hoosiers argue that given the GOP's stance on the war, Hostettler's position may not be enough.

See the article here:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1551842,00.html

~Danny

Dickerson Creeps Up In the 7th District

According to the just recently releasesd 24-hour News 8 Indiana Poll, Republican Eric Dickerson who trailed by 20 points six weeks ago now, is now trailing by five behind Democratic incumbent, Julia Carson, 48-43. In this Democratic leaning district which includes Indianapolis, Carson has never lost an election. In regards to the poll, Dickerson "doesn't want to participate in poll chasing.
The poll consisted of 400 likely voters who were asked the question "If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Julia Carson, the Democrat, or Eric Dickerson, the Republican?"

--Vincent

Will the Real Polling Data Please Stand Up

Ok, so the one thing that the pollsters can agree on is that the 2nd, 8th and 9th Districts are all relatively close races that are currently leaning Democrat. However, what they cannot seem to agree on is by how much.
According to the polling data taken from RealClearPolitics.com, there are some very strange results that have come within the last few weeks.
In the latest Poll (10/05 - 10/12) in the 8th District, Brad Ellsworth seems to be up 23 points on Hostettler. This is horrible news for the Republicans, if the numbers really are true. However, looking back to a poll done 2 weeks ago, Ellsworth was up only 15 points. Another two polls that were done over the same time period as the poll with Ellsworth up 15 points, have him up by 6 and 4 points. There is a 9 point discrepancy between the two polls. This is huge. I'm guessing someone is spending some of their campaign money on polling data, rather than advertising.
In the 9th District, there is another interesting set of polling data that is shown. Hill, the Democrat has seen his lead (well, in the polls at least) shrink from 11 points to 2 points in the last month. This goes against everything being said in the media. How interesting, the Republican is gaining ground in a race. Can it be?
How to read the polls from the 2nd District are anybody's guess. In the latest poll, published on Oct. 10, Donnelly (D) has a 4 point lead, however a day before he had a 1 point lead. Margin of Error...maybe, ok. But wait! 4 days before he had a 16 point lead in another poll! Amazing.
In any case, after looking at these poll numbers, it can be said that the general feeling is that in the 2nd and 9th districts, there are very close races. In the 8th, who knows?! More than anything, these polls seem to be statistical advertisements.

-Wade

A few e-mails, a page and 960 miles later,

As if Republicans have not had a harmful enough encounter with former Congressman Mark Foley of Florida, now the impact has spread to Indiana as well. Between Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel in the 9th District of Indiana, aggressive campaigning ads have been aired, including one Hill ran that accused Sodrel of taking "$77,000 from the House leadership, who knew about but did nothing to stop sexual predator Congressman Foley." In a rebuttal ad, Sodrel defends by saying that the issue is still being investigated and who knew what and when has yet to be determined, so no immediate plans to return it are on the table.

On a similar note, Sodrel lashed back by accusing Hill of "failing to represent Hoosier values with his votes 'to allow flag burning, for abortion and against traditional marriage.'" to which Hill's only response was that while he was against flag burning and same-sex marriage, but did not feel that the Constitution was an appropriate place to place those arguments, and that he "opposes abortion but does not support making it illegal."

Can't these candidates get their own scandal to talk about?

More from the Courier-Journal:
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061011/NEWS0203/610110540/1070

~Danny