Could Tradesports.com be right?

According to those people willing to put money on it, at www.tradesports.com , Indiana’s 8th and 9th Congressional districts are currently favoring Democrats for the Win of both seats which are being called “Republican toss-ups.”

Indiana’s 9th District has seen a big change since April of this year. At that time the chances of the Republicans holding the seat were trading at 65.00 and the Democrats chance of winning was only at 35.00. However, currently the Democrats are favored to win the seat at 67.00 and the Republicans have fallen way behind to 32.00. The data shows that from September 8-14th Democrats were close to their all time high at 74.00 while Republicans hit their record low of 25.1. Although the Republicans had been steadily declining in favor for the win from April to the present we should still consider why the period of September 8-14th caused such a shift. Perhaps the fact that it was surrounding the anniversary of 9/11 had an effect. If that is true then does the fact that after the 14th Republicans rose up some to 32.00 and the Democrats fell to 67.00 mean that peoples suppositions of the effect the War on Terror has on the US, and specifically Indiana’s 9th district, fall short?

The same holds true in Indiana’s 8th District. In April of 2006 Democrats chance of winning the seat was trading at about 46.50 while the Republicans were trading at 56.00. Today the numbers are quite different. The Republicans have slipped down to 35.00 and the Democrats are favored at 65.00. According to the charts both the Republicans and Democrats had even odd for winning for the first half of September at 50.00. But on September 15, 2006 the Democrats hit their all time high of 65.00 and the Republicans dropped to a record low of 35.00. So, the question we now should ask is what happened on September 15th to cause such a sudden change?

-Kiersten