“Winning the War on Terror” vs. “National Security”

Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District

When reviewing the "Winning the War on Terror" section of Chris Chocola’s (R) issues page one thing in particular struck me as being potentially harmful to his campaign. “We have learned that fighting Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and turbulent regions around the globe means that we will not have to fight them on the streets of our own cities.” Although we have yet to encounter a terrorist attack against the United States since September 11th, 2001, I think it is very risky to suggest that because we are fighting over in Iraq and Afghanistan that we will not have any attacks on U.S. soil. If there were to be a successful terrorist act in the United States in the weeks leading up the election I think it would be very difficult for the Republicans to hold this seat in the House of Representatives. The race for Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District is being referred to by the Cook Political Report as a “Republican Toss Up.”

See http://www.chocolaforcongress.com/Issues/Issue/?IssueID=1559

According to Joe Donnelly (D) issues of National Security are slightly different. He notes that “Nothing can change the series of mistakes this administration has made in Iraq, but we can and must make tough decisions about the future so that we can successfully conclude the mission and bring our soldiers home.” Furthermore, he recognizes that there is still a need to focus on present day threats. “I will work to develop America’s defense and intelligence resources to address 21st century threats.” It is important we note that unlike the incumbent Chocola, he does not make any assumptions that the U.S. is safe from attacks and emphasizes our need to continually improve. However, according to the Rasmussen Reports “In the new survey, 48% say the situation in Iraq is likely to get worse over the next six months, and only 28% expect improvement. Those numbers too are about the same as just before the President's speech. Forty-seven percent (47%) say that the mission in Iraq will ultimately be judged a failure.” These statistics could help Donnelly’s campaign. If the 8th district is in line with the rest of the country and only 28% of people think there will be an improvement in Iraq then it follows that a new person in the House could possibly bring about that change as opposed to the incumbents.

See http://www.donnellyforuscongress.com/index.php?id=3,9,0,0,1,0

It is also interesting to note that according to the Rasmussen Report:
“More than twice as many Republicans (68%) as Democrats (26%) say the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terror. Three times as many Democrats (67%) as Republicans (22%) expect things to get worse in Iraq; and by about the same margin, that the mission in Iraq will ultimately fail. Democrats are far more likely to give the President poor marks for his handling of the situation there.
Only 19% of Democrats say we're safer than we were just before the terrorist attacks of five years ago; 73% of Republicans say we are.”

The seemingly vast differences in opinion between Republicans and Democrats in relation to the war on terror will prove to be a battleground for the upcoming elections. Chocola will have a hard time convincing the 74% of democrats and 32% of Republicans who believe the US is loosing the war on terror. Likewise, Donnelly will need to figure out a way to prove the U.S. is in fact loosing the war on terror due to mistakes in Congress in an attempt to win the race.

See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/War%20on%20Terror_Monthly_Update.htm

-Kiersten